By Dr John Latham
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Extra resources for A Scheme For Global Warming Mitigation Via Controlled Enhancement Of The Reflectivity Of Maritime Clouds
4°C). Source: IPCC 4th Assessment (2007) IPCC (2007) Likelihood of Future Events Source: IPCC 4th Assessment (2007) Impacts of Future Events o @ 3-5 C warming (IPCC 2007) Water • Decreasing availability • 100’s of millions of people exposed to increased stress Ecosystems • Significant extinctions • Widespread coral mortality • Change in species range Food • Impacts on subsistence farmers and fishing • Decreased productivity of cereal crops Coasts • Millions more people experience coastal flooding • ~30% of coastal wetlands lost Health • Increased malnutrition, diarrhoeal, cardio-respiratory, and infectious disease • Rising morbidity & mortality: heat waves, flood, droughts • Changed disease distributions • Substantial burden on health services Source: IPCC 4th Assessment (2007) IPCC (2007) Projections of Future Changes in Climate Projected warming in 21st century expected to be: > Greatest over land and at most high northern latitudes > Least over the Southern Ocean and parts of the North Atlantic Ocean Source: IPCC 4th Assessment (2007) IPCC (2007) Projections of Future Changes in Precipitation Precipitation increases very likely in high latitudes Decreases likely in most subtropical land regions Source: IPCC 4th Assessment (2007) Changes in Averages vs.
427, 2004. Small-scale, Indirect Events and Consequences Often Overlooked Events Greater combined impacts than CATs in an average year • • • • • • • • • • • Drought Hail Heat waves Ice Storms Lightning Sea-level rise Thunderstorms Tornados Torrential rains Wildfire Winterstorms Consequences • Blackouts • Coastal erosion • Crop/fishery damages • Equipment breakdown • Eroded air quality • Eroded water quality • Flooding • Health impacts • Mudslides • Property loss • Sinkholes/Subsidence • Weather-related vehicle accidents Temperature-Related Insurance Loss Experience Lightning-related claims accelerate with temperature Each symbol represents a lightning storm event Source: Hartford Steam Boiler Inspection and Insurance Co.
Non-climate factors play a role, but… $2004 insured losses $2004 total non-weather-related natural-disaster losses 20 $2004 property insurance premiums $2004 GDP population • Trends consistent with observed change • Why are non-weather losses level? 7 billion 10 5 0 1980 Source: E. Mills Science 309, 1040 -1044 (2005) 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 Notes: All economic values inflation-adkusted to 2004 levels. Losses from Munich Re NatCat Service; premiums from Swiss Re, Sigma. Values for 2005 are LBNL estimates.
A Scheme For Global Warming Mitigation Via Controlled Enhancement Of The Reflectivity Of Maritime Clouds by Dr John Latham